Risk assessment due to electricity demand forecasting under uncertainty

E. Bolturk; B. Oztaysi

Risk assessment due to electricity demand forecasting under uncertainty

E. Bolturk, B. Oztaysi

Department of Industrial Engineering

Istanbul Ticaret University

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

With the new regulations in Turkey, companies have started to buy electricity from different suppliers in the market. Thus, from the perspective of the electricity providers demand forecasting has become a significant issue. Errors in electricity demand forecasting generate a considerable amount of risk. For electricity suppliers, assessment of this risk caused by the uncertainty has become an important issue. In this paper real world case study is given and Value-At-Risk (VAR) value is calculated due to load forecast errors. The ARIMA and Grey forecasting methods are used for predicting the electricity consumption.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013
Pages	717-722
Number of pages	6
Publication status	Published - 2013
Event	4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013 - Istanbul, Turkey Duration: 27 Aug 2013 → 29 Aug 2013

Publication series

Name	Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013

Conference

Conference	4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013
Country/Territory	Turkey
City	Istanbul
Period	27/08/13 → 29/08/13

Cite this

Bolturk, E., & Oztaysi, B. (2013). Risk assessment due to electricity demand forecasting under uncertainty. In Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013 (pp. 717-722). (Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013).

Bolturk, E. ; Oztaysi, B. / Risk assessment due to electricity demand forecasting under uncertainty. Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013. 2013. pp. 717-722 (Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013).

@inproceedings{82840f5fc56c43b5a4cc7894b2e141dd,

title = "Risk assessment due to electricity demand forecasting under uncertainty",

abstract = "With the new regulations in Turkey, companies have started to buy electricity from different suppliers in the market. Thus, from the perspective of the electricity providers demand forecasting has become a significant issue. Errors in electricity demand forecasting generate a considerable amount of risk. For electricity suppliers, assessment of this risk caused by the uncertainty has become an important issue. In this paper real world case study is given and Value-At-Risk (VAR) value is calculated due to load forecast errors. The ARIMA and Grey forecasting methods are used for predicting the electricity consumption.",

author = "E. Bolturk and B. Oztaysi",

year = "2013",

language = "English",

isbn = "9781138000193",

series = "Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013",

pages = "717--722",

booktitle = "Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013",

note = "4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013 ; Conference date: 27-08-2013 Through 29-08-2013",

}

Bolturk, E & Oztaysi, B 2013, Risk assessment due to electricity demand forecasting under uncertainty. in Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013. Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013, pp. 717-722, 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013, Istanbul, Turkey, 27/08/13.

Risk assessment due to electricity demand forecasting under uncertainty. / Bolturk, E.; Oztaysi, B.
Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013. 2013. p. 717-722 (Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Risk assessment due to electricity demand forecasting under uncertainty

AU - Bolturk, E.

AU - Oztaysi, B.

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - With the new regulations in Turkey, companies have started to buy electricity from different suppliers in the market. Thus, from the perspective of the electricity providers demand forecasting has become a significant issue. Errors in electricity demand forecasting generate a considerable amount of risk. For electricity suppliers, assessment of this risk caused by the uncertainty has become an important issue. In this paper real world case study is given and Value-At-Risk (VAR) value is calculated due to load forecast errors. The ARIMA and Grey forecasting methods are used for predicting the electricity consumption.

AB - With the new regulations in Turkey, companies have started to buy electricity from different suppliers in the market. Thus, from the perspective of the electricity providers demand forecasting has become a significant issue. Errors in electricity demand forecasting generate a considerable amount of risk. For electricity suppliers, assessment of this risk caused by the uncertainty has become an important issue. In this paper real world case study is given and Value-At-Risk (VAR) value is calculated due to load forecast errors. The ARIMA and Grey forecasting methods are used for predicting the electricity consumption.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84887923084&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:84887923084

SN - 9781138000193

T3 - Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013

SP - 717

EP - 722

BT - Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013

T2 - 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013

Y2 - 27 August 2013 through 29 August 2013

ER -

Bolturk E, Oztaysi B. Risk assessment due to electricity demand forecasting under uncertainty. In Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013. 2013. p. 717-722. (Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, RACR 2013).

Risk assessment due to electricity demand forecasting under uncertainty

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this