Refugee exposure and attitudes toward refugees in a developing country context: evidence from Türkiye

Despite hosting large refugee populations, causal evidence on how refugee exposure shapes local attitudes in developing countries remains scarce. This study examines the impact of refugee exposure on local attitudes and migration policy preferences in the world's largest refugee-hosting country. Using an instrumental variables approach, the findings reveal that exposure significantly affects perceptions of economic burden, insecurity, social distance, and migration governance. Negative attitudes are primarily driven by relative deprivation, cultural alienation, and competition in labor markets and public services. While religiosity minimally affects attitudes, it fosters a more welcoming outlook. Consistent with the integration paradox hypothesis, increased interaction with refugees exacerbates cultural conflicts, framing refugees as a perceived threat to the host community’s culture.