Probabilistic Power Flow Analysis of Power Systems with PV and Wind Using Monte Carlo Method

With the increase in renewable energy systems, the increasing uncertainties in power systems make the analysis with deterministic power flow method insufficient. Probabilistic load flow allows us to see the distribution of bus voltage, bus angles and power flowing in the lines according to variable production and consumption values. With these distributions, the probabilities of variables exceeding their limit values are found, and risk analysis is performed. There are two main methods in PPF studies: analytical and numerical. Since the numerical method is more accurate than analytical methods, we opt to use the numerical method. In this study, a probabilistic power flow tool is developed using Monte Carlo Simulation. Three main case studies are analyzed in this publication. The first one was done to verify the correctness of the system. In the second study, n-l contingency analysis was performed. In the third study, the existing generators are replaced with PV and their effects on the system are observed. In order to test the developed tool, a modified 9-bus and IEEE 14 bus test systems were used and compared with a previous study. The results showed that the tool was accurate and faster than the previous studies. This developed tool can also be used as a benchmark to further PPF studies.