Probabilistic earthquake risk consideration of existing precast industrial buildings through loss curves

Ali Yesilyurt*, Seyhan O. Akcan, Oguzhan Cetindemir, A. Can Zulfikar

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


In this study, the earthquake risk assessment of single-story RC precast buildings in Turkey was carried out using loss curves. In this regard, Kocaeli, a seismically active city in the Marmara region, and this building class, which is preferred intensively, were considered. Quality and period parameters were defined based on structural and geometric properties. Depending on these parameters, nine main sub-classes were defined to represent the building stock in the region. First, considering the mean fragility curves and four different central damage ratio models, vulnerability curves for each sub-class were computed as a function of spectral acceleration. Then, probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were performed for stiff and soft soil conditions for different earthquake probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. In the last step, 90 loss curves were derived based on vulnerability and hazard results. Within the scope of the study, the comparative parametric evaluations for three different earthquake intensity levels showed that the structural damage ratio values for nine sub-classes changed significantly. In addition, the quality parameter was found to be more effective on a structure’s damage state than the period parameter. It is evident that since loss curves allow direct loss ratio calculation for any hazard level without needing seismic hazard and damage analysis, they are considered essential tools in rapid earthquake risk estimation and mitigation initiatives.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)565-576
Number of pages12
JournalGeomechanics and Engineering
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - 25 Jun 2024

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  • hazard analysis
  • loss curves
  • seismic risk
  • vulnerability functions


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