Probabilistic approach to modelling of recession curves

Hafzullah Aksoy*, Mehmetcik Bayazit, Hartmut Wittenberg

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

22 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Recession curves of daily streamflow hydrographs are analysed by a probabilistic approach. Flow of a day on a recession curve is calculated by multiplying the previous day's flow with a value of K smaller than one; K, defined as the ratio of the flows of successive days on the recession curve, was determined from observed daily flow time series. The range of K is divided into three class intervals. A procedure using the concept of gradually increasing values of K is adopted. For this, transition probabilities and average values of K are determined for each class interval and each month of the year. A recession curve can be generated, once the peak flow is known, by the probabilistic approach. The procedure allows nonlinear, seasonal and stochastic effects in flow recession of a river to be considered.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)269-285
Number of pages17
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Volume46
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2001

Keywords

  • Ascension curve
  • Markov chain
  • Probabilistic approach
  • Recession curve
  • Recession curve generation
  • Streamflow
  • Transition probability
  • Turkey

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