Predicting Transfer Passenger Numbers in Urban Rail Systems with Time Series

Taha Yüksel*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Urban rail systems are transport systems that are integrated within each other and with other types of public transport at transfer stations, enabling passengers to make their travels and transfers quickly and easily with their accessibility and integration. The waiting time for passengers who will transfer at transfer stations is an essential parameter affecting the choice of transport mode of passengers. In urban rail systems, it is not practically possible to synchronize train timetables at the expected level. In this case, the number of transfer passengers between lines becomes an important parameter in obtaining maximum efficiency from the synchronization of timetables. In urban rail systems, especially in big cities, there are changes in passenger numbers and transfer passenger numbers with the growth and increased use of urban rail systems. Moreover, transfer passenger numbers vary according to seasons, months and even days. Therefore, predicting the future transfer passenger numbers according to the current passenger number data is an important parameter for the synchronization study to provide more optimum solutions. Linear time series will be used in the study. The time series will be tested on sample lines selected from Metro Istanbul and Marmaray.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationISMSIT 2024 - 8th International Symposium on Multidisciplinary Studies and Innovative Technologies, Proceedings
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9798350354423
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024
Event8th International Symposium on Multidisciplinary Studies and Innovative Technologies, ISMSIT 2024 - Ankara, Turkey
Duration: 7 Nov 20249 Nov 2024

Publication series

NameISMSIT 2024 - 8th International Symposium on Multidisciplinary Studies and Innovative Technologies, Proceedings

Conference

Conference8th International Symposium on Multidisciplinary Studies and Innovative Technologies, ISMSIT 2024
Country/TerritoryTurkey
CityAnkara
Period7/11/249/11/24

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 IEEE.

Keywords

  • prediction
  • time series
  • transfer passenger
  • urban rail systems

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