Modelling potential distribution of Carpinus betulus in Anatolia and its surroundings from the Last Glacial Maximum to the future

This study aims to determine how the distribution of Carpinus betulus L. (Linnaeus 1763) has changed from LGM to the present and the future. For this purpose, the species fossil pollen data, occurrence data, and bioclimatic variables obtained from WorldClim were used in this study. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios and Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) model were used for future projection. The PCA method was applied to these variables, and nine variables were determined for species distribution models (SDMs). Models were produced with MaxEnt 3.4.1, and ArcGIS 10.5. Among the nine bioclimatic variables, the BIO18 parameter had the highest contribution to the resulting prediction pattern. The accuracy of the models was measured as 0.83 with the AUC test and 0.80 with the TSS test. According to the obtained results, the most suitable distribution areas of Carpinus betulus in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were the Black Sea region and Western Anatolia. In the future, distribution patterns of Carpinus betulus may shift to the north by decreasing the available present distribution areas in Anatolia and its surroundings. When the models produced according to different climate scenarios for the future are examined, it is predicted that the species will preserve most of the distribution areas in Anatolia according to the RCP 2.6, and will lose most of its distribution areas based on the RCP 4.5. The suitable distribution area will almost disappear according to the RCP 8.5. Hence, these results should be taken into account to improve conservation and management plans for Carpinus betulus and considering biodiversity, and model results will make an important contribution to the future distribution of hornbeams habitat in Anatolia and its surroundings.