Modeling and adaptive control of demand oscillation propagation in an uncertain aerial transportation network

Uncertainties in transportation systems, especially in aerial transportation, have always caused many problems. Climatic conditions, repair and maintenance processes, and unexpected flight cancellations for various reasons are among the most important sources of uncertainties. Uncertainties lead to demand changing and spreads through the demand to upstream flights. These issues cause a lack of optimal allocation of aircraft to airlines, which incurs high costs. For this purpose, in this paper, a supply chain structure is presented for the optimal allocation of aircraft to different flight shifts (in the form of a state space model). The manner in which demand oscillation spreads due to the existence of uncertainties along the transportation network is investigated. The results show that the well-known phenomenon of the bullwhip effect (BWE) in supply chains occurs due to uncertainties. While identifying the uncertain parameters in allocation and order, the effects of demand oscillation (stability) in the uncertain network were controlled using self-tuning regulators (STR). The use of proven system identification features led to more knowledge of the proposed model. Also, using the supply chain model, at Tabriz Shahid Madani International Airport, while guaranteeing stability and reducing the bullwhip effect caused, the reference commands in the aircraft allocation room were well fulfilled.