Maritime traffic analysis of the Izmit bay by iWrAP

Izmit Bay has a growing trade volume which result with increase in the vessel traffic and establishment of new ports. According to recent statistics, the amount of handled cargo is approximately 61 million tonnes. Due to its crucial geographical position, it is the most significant and the biggest natural bay in Turkey. Therefore, vessel condition, environmental factors and other navigational issues that influence risk has an important role in the region. A compulsory pilotage service is provided and VTS services about to commence. Heavy ferry traffic encounters with transit traffic, run from one side to other of the bay which create immense danger for cargo vessels. A suspension bridge construction commenced and will be completed soon to shorten travelling distance around the bay. Bridge construction and legs of the bridge narrowed the marine traffic lane at the entrance of the bay. Navigators have to struggle with the risks based on their own experience. Hence, VTS services intended to improve navigation safety and regulate maritime traffic. There are few major marine accidents in the past despite of increasing dense maritime traffic. Nevertheless, there are not many academic study focus on maritime traffic, navigational risk and risk mitigating counter measure in the region. In this study, probabilities of marine accidents that would influence safe of navigation in Izmit Bay are investigated by utilizing IALA Waterways Risk Assessment Program (IWRAP). IWRAP is a quantitative risk assessment model developed by IALA to quantify ship based risk by utilizing AIS data. Result of the study provide an understanding for dangerous parts of the bay in terms of collision and grounding probabilities.