Life cycle assessment of recovery scenarios for municipal solid waste management: A case study of Amasya

This study evaluates the environmental performance of municipal solid waste (MSW) management strategies in Amasya through 2035 using life cycle assessment (LCA). The functional unit was defined as the total annual MSW generation in the city. Environmental impacts were quantified across four scenarios, comparing the baseline year 2022 with three forecasting configurations (Scenario 2035-I, II and III) using the ReCiPe 2016 method, which encompasses ten midpoint impact categories. Background inventory data were compiled from relevant literature and the ecoinvent v3 database. To assess model robustness and identify parameters most influencing system behavior, perturbation analysis was conducted as part of the sensitivity assessment. Scenario 2035-I integrates mechanical biological treatment with refuse-derived fuel production, material recovery facilities (MRFs), and composting, achieving a 60% recovery rate. Scenario 2035-II replaces composting with anaerobic digestion while maintaining equivalent recovery levels, whereas Scenario 2035-III represents a business-as-usual case dominated by landfilling (97.5%). The results reveal that transitioning from landfilling to integrated recovery systems substantially reduces overall environmental burdens. Among all configurations, Scenario 2035-I demonstrates the lowest net greenhouse gas emissions, confirming the decisive role of material recovery in mitigating climate impacts. Sensitivity analysis further identifies landfill gas management and electricity consumption in MRF operations as the most influential parameters affecting system performance. The study concludes that achieving Türkiye's 2035 recovery target is a critical milestone for decarbonizing the waste sector, but further progress toward the 2053 net-zero commitment will require systemic integration of upstream resource efficiency, low-carbon energy use, and advanced recovery infrastructure.