Integrating Spatio-Probabilistic mapping and remote sensing for comprehensive drought risk assessment

Drought is a slow onset natural hazard with significant environmental and socio economic consequences, making effective monitoring and impact assessment crucial for water resource management. This study analyzes drought dynamics and environmental impacts in the Küçük Menderes Water Basin using an integrated approach that combines multiple drought indices with vegetation and land cover analysis. Three complementary drought indices including SPI, SPEI, and PDSI were applied to 30 year meteorological data to assess drought patterns, while vegetation dynamics were examined through NDVI analysis and land cover changes were evaluated using CORINE. The study employed Spatio Probabilistic Drought Mapping (SPDM) to identify high risk areas and quantify drought environment interactions. Results revealed that western regions of the basin face the highest drought risk, with major drought episodes occurring in 1992–1994, 2001, 2007–2008, 2017, and 2018 causing severe environmental impacts. Drought events led to significant vegetation losses in grasslands and agricultural areas, with crop yield reductions reaching up to 50% in severely affected periods. The analysis also identified strong correlations between prolonged droughts and increased forest fire damage. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of integrating multiple drought assessment approaches and highlight the urgent need for basin scale drought monitoring systems. The study provides a comprehensive framework for understanding drought-induced environmental changes and supports the development of climate adaptation strategies for water stressed regions.