Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkish Prices

Ismail H. Genc; George Naufal; Emin Gahramanov

doi:10.1093/jrs/feab089

Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkish Prices

Ismail H. Genc^*
, George Naufal
, Emin Gahramanov

^*Corresponding author for this work

American University of Sharjah
Texas A&M University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Because of the civil war in Syria, refugees immigrated into Turkey between May 2011 and December 2012. We analyse the impact of this phenomenon on prices by searching for endogenous structural breaks. Our method differs from difference-in-differences models where an a priori explicit break date is imposed. Although immigration could lead to higher demand, thus higher prices, at least initially, in immigration regions, it results in arbitrage between regions, eliminating the initial price impact. Our findings suggest that the impact of Syrian immigration on Turkish prices is moderate and does not display a substantial difference between control and treatment regions.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	139-158
Number of pages	20
Journal	Journal of Refugee Studies
Volume	35
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/jrs/feab089
Publication status	Published - 1 Mar 2022
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 10 Reduced Inequalities

Keywords

Inflation
International migration
Syrian refugees
Time-series models

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10.1093/jrs/feab089

Cite this

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abstract = "Because of the civil war in Syria, refugees immigrated into Turkey between May 2011 and December 2012. We analyse the impact of this phenomenon on prices by searching for endogenous structural breaks. Our method differs from difference-in-differences models where an a priori explicit break date is imposed. Although immigration could lead to higher demand, thus higher prices, at least initially, in immigration regions, it results in arbitrage between regions, eliminating the initial price impact. Our findings suggest that the impact of Syrian immigration on Turkish prices is moderate and does not display a substantial difference between control and treatment regions.",

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AU - Gahramanov, Emin

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AB - Because of the civil war in Syria, refugees immigrated into Turkey between May 2011 and December 2012. We analyse the impact of this phenomenon on prices by searching for endogenous structural breaks. Our method differs from difference-in-differences models where an a priori explicit break date is imposed. Although immigration could lead to higher demand, thus higher prices, at least initially, in immigration regions, it results in arbitrage between regions, eliminating the initial price impact. Our findings suggest that the impact of Syrian immigration on Turkish prices is moderate and does not display a substantial difference between control and treatment regions.

KW - Inflation

KW - International migration

KW - Syrian refugees

KW - Time-series models

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IS - 1

ER -

Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkish Prices

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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