Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkish Prices

Because of the civil war in Syria, refugees immigrated into Turkey between May 2011 and December 2012. We analyse the impact of this phenomenon on prices by searching for endogenous structural breaks. Our method differs from difference-in-differences models where an a priori explicit break date is imposed. Although immigration could lead to higher demand, thus higher prices, at least initially, in immigration regions, it results in arbitrage between regions, eliminating the initial price impact. Our findings suggest that the impact of Syrian immigration on Turkish prices is moderate and does not display a substantial difference between control and treatment regions.