Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey

Hakan Aksu; Hafzullah Aksoy; Mahmut Cetin; Mehmet Evrens; Said Genar Yaldiz; Omar Alsenjar; Isilsu Yildirim

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54

Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey

Hakan Aksu^*, Hafzullah Aksoy, Mahmut Cetin, Mehmet Evrens, Said Genar Yaldiz, Omar Alsenjar, Isilsu Yildirim

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Civil Engineering

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

This study aims to figure out the changes in extreme precipitation events and precipitation-induced maximum flows due to climate change in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. The Spearman's rho test was applied to the annual maximum daily precipitation and daily flow data to examine the temporal variation. The test results were interpreted at the 95% confidence interval, and no trend was detected. The annual maximum of daily precipitation projections of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios obtained at a resolution of 10 km² by downscaling from the MPI-ES-MR global climate model was used for statistical modeling of the projection period. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, the 24-h maximum precipitation for the projection period increased by 20–46% for the 100-year return period compared to the observation period in Trabzon, Rize, Bayburt, and Artvin meteorological stations. On the other hand, there was a decrease between 12 and 42% in Gümüşhane, Giresun, and Ordu stations. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, the change in the 100-year return level between the observation and projection periods was 46% for all stations except for Gümüshane, with a decrease of 8%.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1
Editors	Haroun Chenchouni, Helder I. Chaminé, Zhihua Zhang, Nabil Khelifi, Attila Ciner, Imran Ali, Mingjie Chen
Publisher	Springer Nature
Pages	257-259
Number of pages	3
ISBN (Print)	9783031431685
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54
Publication status	Published - 2023
Event	1st International conference on Mediterranean Geosciences Union, MedGU 2021 - Istanbul, Turkey Duration: 25 Nov 2021 → 28 Nov 2021

Publication series

Name	Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation
ISSN (Print)	2522-8714
ISSN (Electronic)	2522-8722

Conference

Conference	1st International conference on Mediterranean Geosciences Union, MedGU 2021
Country/Territory	Turkey
City	Istanbul
Period	25/11/21 → 28/11/21

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Funding

Acknowledgements This work was supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK), Project Number: 119Y361.

Funders	Funder number
Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu	119Y361

Keywords

Climate change scenario
East black sea
Extreme precipitation
Generalized extreme value distribution
Maximum flow

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54

Cite this

Aksu, H., Aksoy, H., Cetin, M., Evrens, M., Yaldiz, S. G., Alsenjar, O., & Yildirim, I. (2023). Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey. In H. Chenchouni, H. I. Chaminé, Z. Zhang, N. Khelifi, A. Ciner, I. Ali, & M. Chen (Eds.), Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1 (pp. 257-259). (Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation). Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54

Aksu, Hakan ; Aksoy, Hafzullah ; Cetin, Mahmut et al. / Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey. Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1. editor / Haroun Chenchouni ; Helder I. Chaminé ; Zhihua Zhang ; Nabil Khelifi ; Attila Ciner ; Imran Ali ; Mingjie Chen. Springer Nature, 2023. pp. 257-259 (Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation).

@inproceedings{0a2143807e364074b45aee0f96950517,

title = "Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey",

abstract = "This study aims to figure out the changes in extreme precipitation events and precipitation-induced maximum flows due to climate change in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. The Spearman's rho test was applied to the annual maximum daily precipitation and daily flow data to examine the temporal variation. The test results were interpreted at the 95% confidence interval, and no trend was detected. The annual maximum of daily precipitation projections of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios obtained at a resolution of 10 km2 by downscaling from the MPI-ES-MR global climate model was used for statistical modeling of the projection period. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, the 24-h maximum precipitation for the projection period increased by 20–46% for the 100-year return period compared to the observation period in Trabzon, Rize, Bayburt, and Artvin meteorological stations. On the other hand, there was a decrease between 12 and 42% in G{\"u}m{\"u}{\c s}hane, Giresun, and Ordu stations. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, the change in the 100-year return level between the observation and projection periods was 46% for all stations except for G{\"u}m{\"u}shane, with a decrease of 8%.",

keywords = "Climate change scenario, East black sea, Extreme precipitation, Generalized extreme value distribution, Maximum flow",

author = "Hakan Aksu and Hafzullah Aksoy and Mahmut Cetin and Mehmet Evrens and Yaldiz, {Said Genar} and Omar Alsenjar and Isilsu Yildirim",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.; 1st International conference on Mediterranean Geosciences Union, MedGU 2021 ; Conference date: 25-11-2021 Through 28-11-2021",

year = "2023",

doi = "10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54",

language = "English",

isbn = "9783031431685",

series = "Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation",

publisher = "Springer Nature",

pages = "257--259",

editor = "Haroun Chenchouni and Chamin{\'e}, {Helder I.} and Zhihua Zhang and Nabil Khelifi and Attila Ciner and Imran Ali and Mingjie Chen",

booktitle = "Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1",

address = "Switzerland",

}

Aksu, H, Aksoy, H, Cetin, M, Evrens, M, Yaldiz, SG, Alsenjar, O & Yildirim, I 2023, Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey. in H Chenchouni, HI Chaminé, Z Zhang, N Khelifi, A Ciner, I Ali & M Chen (eds), Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1. Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation, Springer Nature, pp. 257-259, 1st International conference on Mediterranean Geosciences Union, MedGU 2021, Istanbul, Turkey, 25/11/21. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54

Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey. / Aksu, Hakan; Aksoy, Hafzullah; Cetin, Mahmut et al.
Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1. ed. / Haroun Chenchouni; Helder I. Chaminé; Zhihua Zhang; Nabil Khelifi; Attila Ciner; Imran Ali; Mingjie Chen. Springer Nature, 2023. p. 257-259 (Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey

AU - Aksu, Hakan

AU - Aksoy, Hafzullah

AU - Cetin, Mahmut

AU - Evrens, Mehmet

AU - Yaldiz, Said Genar

AU - Alsenjar, Omar

AU - Yildirim, Isilsu

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - This study aims to figure out the changes in extreme precipitation events and precipitation-induced maximum flows due to climate change in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. The Spearman's rho test was applied to the annual maximum daily precipitation and daily flow data to examine the temporal variation. The test results were interpreted at the 95% confidence interval, and no trend was detected. The annual maximum of daily precipitation projections of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios obtained at a resolution of 10 km2 by downscaling from the MPI-ES-MR global climate model was used for statistical modeling of the projection period. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, the 24-h maximum precipitation for the projection period increased by 20–46% for the 100-year return period compared to the observation period in Trabzon, Rize, Bayburt, and Artvin meteorological stations. On the other hand, there was a decrease between 12 and 42% in Gümüşhane, Giresun, and Ordu stations. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, the change in the 100-year return level between the observation and projection periods was 46% for all stations except for Gümüshane, with a decrease of 8%.

AB - This study aims to figure out the changes in extreme precipitation events and precipitation-induced maximum flows due to climate change in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey. The Spearman's rho test was applied to the annual maximum daily precipitation and daily flow data to examine the temporal variation. The test results were interpreted at the 95% confidence interval, and no trend was detected. The annual maximum of daily precipitation projections of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios obtained at a resolution of 10 km2 by downscaling from the MPI-ES-MR global climate model was used for statistical modeling of the projection period. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, the 24-h maximum precipitation for the projection period increased by 20–46% for the 100-year return period compared to the observation period in Trabzon, Rize, Bayburt, and Artvin meteorological stations. On the other hand, there was a decrease between 12 and 42% in Gümüşhane, Giresun, and Ordu stations. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, the change in the 100-year return level between the observation and projection periods was 46% for all stations except for Gümüshane, with a decrease of 8%.

KW - Climate change scenario

KW - East black sea

KW - Extreme precipitation

KW - Generalized extreme value distribution

KW - Maximum flow

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85178522645&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54

DO - 10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:85178522645

SN - 9783031431685

T3 - Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation

SP - 257

EP - 259

BT - Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1

A2 - Chenchouni, Haroun

A2 - Chaminé, Helder I.

A2 - Zhang, Zhihua

A2 - Khelifi, Nabil

A2 - Ciner, Attila

A2 - Ali, Imran

A2 - Chen, Mingjie

PB - Springer Nature

T2 - 1st International conference on Mediterranean Geosciences Union, MedGU 2021

Y2 - 25 November 2021 through 28 November 2021

ER -

Aksu H, Aksoy H, Cetin M, Evrens M, Yaldiz SG, Alsenjar O et al. Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey. In Chenchouni H, Chaminé HI, Zhang Z, Khelifi N, Ciner A, Ali I, Chen M, editors, Recent Research on Hydrogeology, Geoecology and Atmospheric Sciences - Proceedings of the 1st MedGU, Istanbul 2021 Volume 1. Springer Nature. 2023. p. 257-259. (Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation). doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-43169-2_54

Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flood Flows in the Eastern Black Sea Region-Turkey

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this