Impact of climate change and socioeconomic factors on domestic energy consumption: The case of Hong Kong and Singapore

Cho Kwong Charlie Lam, Qing He, Kai lok Cheng, Ping Yu Fan, Kwok Pan Chun*, Byron Choi, Daphne Ngar yin Mah, Darren Man wai Cheung, Kevin Lo, Omer Yetemen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Temperature and population growth are key drivers of energy consumption. However, the relative importance of climatic and socioeconomic factors driving energy consumption at different temporal scales is not well-understood. Therefore, we developed a time-series decomposition method to attribute the relative importance of climatic (heat index and monsoon index) and socioeconomic variables to domestic energy consumption in Hong Kong from 1981–2015. The same method was used for Singapore from 2005–2015 to test the transferability of our time-series method. Population growth and GDP were the primary drivers for domestic energy consumption in Hong Kong from 1981–2015, but the heat index became the primary driver from 2005–2015 instead. The monsoon and heat indexes were the primary drivers of domestic energy consumption in Singapore from 2005–2015. Climate change will increase air temperatures by 2–5 °C for Hong Kong and Singapore by 2100. For RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, Singapore shows a linear relationship between temperature and domestic energy consumption, whereas the relationship is non-linear in Hong Kong. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding the impact of climatic change on monsoon mechanism and heat index, which can predict future cooling demand and help achieve sustainable development goals.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)12886-12904
Number of pages19
JournalEnergy Reports
Volume8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors

Funding

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41905005, No. 41875015). This research was also supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) 2232 grant (118C329), the Hong Kong Baptist University Faculty Research Grant (No. FRG1/17-18/044 and No. FRG1/16-17/034) and Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (No. 311020001). The corresponding author is the awardee of the Accelerator Programme (AP) 2022–24 in the University of the West of England (UWE), Bristol. This research is originally from the final year work of Kai-lok Cheng supervised by the correpsonding author, and it has been recognized by the Royal Geography Society (Hong Kong Branch) for an undergraduate or master's degree research award. The authors would like to thank Frederik Grüll for his assistance in data analysis and helpful discussions during the development of this manuscript. This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41905005 , No. 41875015 ). This research was also supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) 2232 grant ( 118C329 ), the Hong Kong Baptist University Faculty Research Grant (No. FRG1/17-18/044 and No. FRG1/16-17/034 ) and Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (No. 311020001 ). The corresponding author is the awardee of the Accelerator Programme (AP) 2022–24 in the University of the West of England (UWE), Bristol. This research is originally from the final year work of Kai-lok Cheng supervised by the correpsonding author, and it has been recognized by the Royal Geography Society (Hong Kong Branch) for an undergraduate or master’s degree research award. The authors would like to thank Frederik Grüll for his assistance in data analysis and helpful discussions during the development of this manuscript.

FundersFunder number
Royal Geography Society
Hong Kong Baptist UniversityFRG1/16-17/034, FRG1/17-18/044
National Natural Science Foundation of China41875015, 41905005
Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu118C329
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou)311020001

    Keywords

    • Climate change
    • Energy consumption
    • Heat index
    • Monsoon index
    • Population change
    • Relative importance analysis

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