Identification of an appropriate low flow forecast model for the Meuse River

Mehmet C. Demirel, Martijn J. Booij

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

This study investigates the selection of an appropriate low flow forecast model for the Meuse River based on the comparison of output uncertainties of different models. For this purpose, three data driven models have been developed for the Meuse River: a multivariate ARMAX model, a linear regression model and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. The uncertainty in these three models is assumed to be represented by the difference between observed and simulated discharge. The results show that the ANN low flow forecast model with one or two input variables(s) performed slightly better than the other statistical models when forecasting low flows for a lead time of seven days. The approach for the selection of an appropriate low flow forecast model adopted in this study can be used for other lead times and river basins as well.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationHydroinformatics in Hydrology, Hydrogeology and Water Resources
Pages296-303
Number of pages8
Publication statusPublished - 2009
Externally publishedYes
EventSymposium JS.4 at the Joint Convention of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, IAHS and the International Association of Hydrogeologists, IAH - Hyderabad, India
Duration: 6 Sept 200912 Sept 2009

Publication series

NameIAHS-AISH Publication
Volume331
ISSN (Print)0144-7815

Conference

ConferenceSymposium JS.4 at the Joint Convention of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, IAHS and the International Association of Hydrogeologists, IAH
Country/TerritoryIndia
CityHyderabad
Period6/09/0912/09/09

Keywords

  • ANN
  • Appropriate model
  • ARMAX
  • Linear regression model
  • Low flows
  • Meuse River
  • Uncertainty

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Identification of an appropriate low flow forecast model for the Meuse River'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this