Human-environment dynamics at Lake Burdur (Southwestern Türkiye): A Paleoenvironmental perspective from a 4600-year pollen sequence

This study investigates a long–term interaction between climate, vegetation and human societies in the Burdur Basin in southwestern Türkiye during the last 4600 years. The regional vegetation was dominated primarily by evergreen Mediterranean species, such as Quercus ilex, Pinus, Olea europaea and Juglans regia. The recurrent presence of Cedrus libani pollen indicates long–distance transport from the Taurus Mountains. The continuous occurrence and increased abundance of cultivated and disturbance–related taxa, including Juglans regia, Olea europaea, Poaceae, Amaranthaceae, Plantago lanceolata type and other ruderal and grazing indicators, indicates anthropogenic influence. A pronounced increase in arboreal pollen, particularly from Pinus, around 2700 yr BP marks a transition from relatively open landscapes to denser forest cover. This period was characterised by significant fluctuations in the dominant species, with Pinus and Quercus ilex initially expanding and then declining before showing renewed increases after 1000 yr BP. Juniperus and deciduous Quercus also display marked variability, reflecting shifting climatic conditions and land use intensity. Pollen–based climate reconstructions indicate a gradual rise in summer temperatures (MTWA), reaching a maximum of ∼24 °C around 2700 yr BP, while winter temperatures (MTCO) remained comparatively stable. The increasing summer warmth led to enhanced thermal stress on vegetation, as reflected by rising GDD0 values, while plant moisture conditions remained relatively stable. After ∼2500 yr BP, climatic variability intensified, with pronounced fluctuations in MTWA and modest changes in moisture availability. Principal Component Analysis identifies a dominant gradient separating arboreal from non–arboreal vegetation, reflecting long–term alternations between forested and open landscapes. Redundancy analysis further demonstrates that temperature exerts primary control over vegetation structure, while moisture availability acts as a secondary driver, influencing grazing pressure, disturbance taxa and human land use intensity.