TY - JOUR
T1 - Effect of Model Structure and Calibration Algorithm on Discharge Simulation in the Acısu Basin, Turkey
AU - Alp, Harun
AU - Demirel, Mehmet Cüneyd
AU - Aşıkoğlu, Ömer Levend
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 by the authors.
PY - 2022/12
Y1 - 2022/12
N2 - In this study, the Acısu Basin—viz., the headwater of the Gediz Basin—in Turkey, was modelled using three types of hydrological models and three different calibration algorithms. A well-known lumped model (GR4J), a commonly used semi-distributed (SWAT+) model, and a skillful distributed (mHM) hydrological model were built and integrated with the Parameter Estimation Tool (PEST). PEST is a model-independent calibration tool including three algorithms—namely, Levenberg Marquardt (L-M), Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE), and Covariance Matrix Adoption Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES). The calibration period was 1991–2000, and the validation results were obtained for 2002–2005. The effect of the model structure and calibration algorithm selection on the discharge simulation was evaluated via comparison of nine different model-algorithm combinations. Results have shown that mHM and CMA-ES combination performed the best discharge simulation according to NSE values (calibration: 0.67, validation: 0.60). Although statistically the model results were classified as acceptable, the models mostly missed the peak values in the hydrograph. This problem may be related to the interventions made in 2000–2001 and may be overcome by changing the calibration and validation periods, increasing the number of iterations, or using the naturalized gauge data.
AB - In this study, the Acısu Basin—viz., the headwater of the Gediz Basin—in Turkey, was modelled using three types of hydrological models and three different calibration algorithms. A well-known lumped model (GR4J), a commonly used semi-distributed (SWAT+) model, and a skillful distributed (mHM) hydrological model were built and integrated with the Parameter Estimation Tool (PEST). PEST is a model-independent calibration tool including three algorithms—namely, Levenberg Marquardt (L-M), Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE), and Covariance Matrix Adoption Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES). The calibration period was 1991–2000, and the validation results were obtained for 2002–2005. The effect of the model structure and calibration algorithm selection on the discharge simulation was evaluated via comparison of nine different model-algorithm combinations. Results have shown that mHM and CMA-ES combination performed the best discharge simulation according to NSE values (calibration: 0.67, validation: 0.60). Although statistically the model results were classified as acceptable, the models mostly missed the peak values in the hydrograph. This problem may be related to the interventions made in 2000–2001 and may be overcome by changing the calibration and validation periods, increasing the number of iterations, or using the naturalized gauge data.
KW - GR4J
KW - SWAT+
KW - calibration algorithm
KW - hydrological modelling
KW - mHM
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85144314171&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/cli10120196
DO - 10.3390/cli10120196
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85144314171
SN - 2225-1154
VL - 10
JO - Climate
JF - Climate
IS - 12
M1 - 196
ER -