Drought Monitoring Based on Predicted SPI Using Fuzzy Controller System

Bashar Muneer Yahya; Dursun Zafer Seker; Khansaa Abdulelah Ahmed

doi:10.33899/earth.2022.176633

Drought Monitoring Based on Predicted SPI Using Fuzzy Controller System

Bashar Muneer Yahya^*, Dursun Zafer Seker, Khansaa Abdulelah Ahmed

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Drought monitoring is one of the most difficult steps required for optimal planning it must be diligently calculated to ensure success in future plans. In this study, a fuzzy logic control system was developed to monitor drought in the long term based on the values of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12) and several climate variables. The system applied meteorological data obtained from the meteorological station of the city of Mosul northwest of Iraq and showed that the predicted data confirms the observed data. To verify this conformity further, the accuracy of the prediction and the errors were calculated to test the validity of this system in drought monitoring and the performance efficiency of the system was found to be equal to 82.3%. The system showed high flexibility and capability to represent several different scenarios because of its wide range in designing and selecting Membership Functions and the number of data variables that can be used as its input. Based on the output data and the accuracy of the operation of the system, this system can be recommended to serve as an effective tool for long-term drought monitoring to develop optimal future plans in environmental and agricultural fields in the study area.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	140-152
Number of pages	13
Journal	Iraqi National Journal of Earth Science
Volume	22
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.33899/earth.2022.176633
Publication status	Published - 1 Sept 2022
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© Authors, 2022, College of Science, University of Mosul.

Funding

The author is grateful to the Iraqi ministry of higher education and scientific research and Mosul University for providing financial support and the gratitude to the Iraqi ministry of transportation for providing the rainfall data.

Funders	Funder number
Iraqi Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research and Mosul University

Keywords

Drought Indices (SPI)
Fuzzy Controller System (FCS)
Fuzzy logic
Prediction

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.33899/earth.2022.176633

Cite this

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title = "Drought Monitoring Based on Predicted SPI Using Fuzzy Controller System",

abstract = "Drought monitoring is one of the most difficult steps required for optimal planning it must be diligently calculated to ensure success in future plans. In this study, a fuzzy logic control system was developed to monitor drought in the long term based on the values of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12) and several climate variables. The system applied meteorological data obtained from the meteorological station of the city of Mosul northwest of Iraq and showed that the predicted data confirms the observed data. To verify this conformity further, the accuracy of the prediction and the errors were calculated to test the validity of this system in drought monitoring and the performance efficiency of the system was found to be equal to 82.3%. The system showed high flexibility and capability to represent several different scenarios because of its wide range in designing and selecting Membership Functions and the number of data variables that can be used as its input. Based on the output data and the accuracy of the operation of the system, this system can be recommended to serve as an effective tool for long-term drought monitoring to develop optimal future plans in environmental and agricultural fields in the study area.",

keywords = "Drought Indices (SPI), Fuzzy Controller System (FCS), Fuzzy logic, Prediction",

author = "Yahya, {Bashar Muneer} and Seker, {Dursun Zafer} and Ahmed, {Khansaa Abdulelah}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} Authors, 2022, College of Science, University of Mosul.",

year = "2022",

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doi = "10.33899/earth.2022.176633",

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AU - Yahya, Bashar Muneer

AU - Seker, Dursun Zafer

AU - Ahmed, Khansaa Abdulelah

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © Authors, 2022, College of Science, University of Mosul.

PY - 2022/9/1

Y1 - 2022/9/1

N2 - Drought monitoring is one of the most difficult steps required for optimal planning it must be diligently calculated to ensure success in future plans. In this study, a fuzzy logic control system was developed to monitor drought in the long term based on the values of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12) and several climate variables. The system applied meteorological data obtained from the meteorological station of the city of Mosul northwest of Iraq and showed that the predicted data confirms the observed data. To verify this conformity further, the accuracy of the prediction and the errors were calculated to test the validity of this system in drought monitoring and the performance efficiency of the system was found to be equal to 82.3%. The system showed high flexibility and capability to represent several different scenarios because of its wide range in designing and selecting Membership Functions and the number of data variables that can be used as its input. Based on the output data and the accuracy of the operation of the system, this system can be recommended to serve as an effective tool for long-term drought monitoring to develop optimal future plans in environmental and agricultural fields in the study area.

AB - Drought monitoring is one of the most difficult steps required for optimal planning it must be diligently calculated to ensure success in future plans. In this study, a fuzzy logic control system was developed to monitor drought in the long term based on the values of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12) and several climate variables. The system applied meteorological data obtained from the meteorological station of the city of Mosul northwest of Iraq and showed that the predicted data confirms the observed data. To verify this conformity further, the accuracy of the prediction and the errors were calculated to test the validity of this system in drought monitoring and the performance efficiency of the system was found to be equal to 82.3%. The system showed high flexibility and capability to represent several different scenarios because of its wide range in designing and selecting Membership Functions and the number of data variables that can be used as its input. Based on the output data and the accuracy of the operation of the system, this system can be recommended to serve as an effective tool for long-term drought monitoring to develop optimal future plans in environmental and agricultural fields in the study area.

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KW - Prediction

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Drought Monitoring Based on Predicted SPI Using Fuzzy Controller System

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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