Determination of the key variables for future anticipation in Turkish apparel industry

Turkish apparel industry has a significant impact on Turkish economy. But recently, there are rapid and challenging changes for the industry because of the abolishment of quotas and liberalization of trade. It is very important for the companies and for the industry to anticipate the future so that the future plans and strategies can be arranged to compete with the challenges and to gain success. Anticipation of future is extremely difficult as future involves unknowns and uncertainties in it. But, it can be forecasted to a greater extent by following a systematic forecasting process. In this context, considering the significance and the situation of the apparel industry, a PhD study is established for future anticipation of Turkish apparel industry in European market using scenario analysis. In this paper, the results of the initial step of the scenario analysis which was consisted of delimitation of the system and the structural analysis were given. The driving factors and the variables were classified into categories; MICMAC method was applied to discover the stability degree of the industry and of key variables. The results were then analyzed and reviewed within the predetermined group of variables.