Deep Lithospheric Controls on Surface Deformation and Seismicity around the East Anatolian Fault Zone and A³ Triple Junction

The East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) is a plate-bounding strike-slip fault capable of hosting large earthquakes, as demonstrated by the extremely damaging February 2023 Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.7 mainshocks of the Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence. Deformation related to this boundary, part of the Anatolia-Arabia-Africa (A³) Triple Junction, is diffuse, as was shown by part of this earthquake sequence occurring on a northern splay of the EAFZ (the Sürgü-Çardak Fault Zone; SCFZ). Controls on surface deformation are commonly linked to stress in the brittle upper crust, but the complex deformation and seismicity patterns in this region may also reflect deeper processes, such as variations in the location and extent of the strong Arabian Plate lithospheric mantle. Seismic tomography indicates that the Arabian Plate underthrusts Anatolia as far north as the SCFZ and extends as far west as the central Adana Basin, coincident with a zone of relatively deep (>30 km) strike-slip seismogenesis that has produced Mw >6 earthquakes. By investigating the relationship between deformation since the inception of the EAFZ (ca. 5 Ma), seismic structure, and seismicity, we infer that the SCFZ will become the future SE boundary of the Anatolian Plate as part of the evolving A³ Triple Junction.