Decarbonizing municipal solid waste management in Türkiye: A scenario-based life cycle assessment from historical baseline to 2035 recovery targets

Municipal solid waste (MSW) management represents a growing global environmental challenge due to population growth, urbanization, and rising resource consumption. In Türkiye, MSW generation is expected to increase, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable and low-carbon management strategies. This study applies a scenario-based life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate the environmental performance and potential transition pathways of Türkiye's MSW system, supporting the national target of 60% material recovery by 2035. Three scenarios were modeled: 2014 (historical), 2021 (status quo), and 2035 (policy-aligned projection), and environmental impacts were assessed using the ReCiPe 2016 midpoint method. Results show that phasing out open dumping, expanding recycling, and implementing mechanical–biological treatment, anaerobic digestion, and waste-to-energy systems can substantially reduce climate and other environmental impacts. In 2014, open dumping and landfilling dominated emissions, with a total of 351 kg CO₂-eq/tMSW. By 2021, partial implementation of material recovery facilities and energy recovery from anaerobic digestion reduced net emissions to 61 kg CO₂-eq/tMSW. In the 2035 scenario, the system achieves a net negative climate impact of −175 kg CO₂-eq/tMSW, primarily driven by enhanced recycling and the complete phase-out of open dumping. Landfilling remains the largest remaining emission source, though emissions per ton of MSW decrease over time due to lower biodegradable waste content. Targeted interventions can turn the MSW sector into a carbon sink, providing evidence to support sustainable policies and insights for other emerging countries.