Critical drought intensity-duration-frequency curves based on total probability theorem-coupled frequency analysis

Hafzullah Aksoy*, Mahmut Cetin, Ebru Eris, Halil Ibrahim Burgan, Yonca Cavus, Isilsu Yildirim, Murugesu Sivapalan

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

42 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A methodology using the standardised precipitation index is proposed to develop critical drought intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. We define dry periods within which we recognise droughts of different durations. The most severe drought for each drought duration in each year is called the critical drought. The total probability theorem-coupled frequency analysis is used to determine the best-fit probability distribution function of drought severity, which is then converted to intensity. The generalised extreme value probability distribution function is found to best fit the critical drought severity. The methodology is implemented using monthly precipitation data for a meteorological station in Turkey. The critical drought intensity decreases linearly with increasing drought duration, whereas the return period increases exponentially when the drought becomes more severe. The site-specific IDF curves furnished with an empirical relationship between the intensity and return period allow one to characterise the drought not by an index-based intensity but by its return period. This kind of presentation is physically easier to understand, in particular for stakeholders and decision makers in practice.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1337-1358
Number of pages22
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Volume66
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 IAHS.

Funding

This work was supported by the Istanbul Technical University [MUA-2019-42094]; Fulbright [Academic Research Scholarship]; and Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey [2219 Post-doctoral Research Program]. With the contribution of the co-authors, this study was formulated during the research study of H. Aksoy as a Fulbright Visiting Scholar at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), USA. The research study of H. Aksoy has been supported by (1) Fulbright through the Academic Research Scholarship; (2) Istanbul Technical University (ITU) through the International Research and Cooperation Program, UAIP, Project: MUA-2019-42094; and (3) the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) through the 2219 Post-doctoral Research Program. All these supports are greatly appreciated. H. Aksoy thanks the Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science for the hospitality and support provided during his stay at UIUC. With the contribution of the co-authors, this study was formulated during the research study of H. Aksoy as a Fulbright Visiting Scholar at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), USA. The research study of H. Aksoy has been supported by (1) Fulbright through the Academic Research Scholarship; (2) Istanbul Technical University (ITU) through the International Research and Cooperation Program, UAIP, Project: MUA-2019-42094; and (3) the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) through the 2219 Post-doctoral Research Program. All these supports are greatly appreciated. H. Aksoy thanks the Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science for the hospitality and support provided during his stay at UIUC.

FundersFunder number
International Research and Cooperation Program
TUBITAK
UAIP
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştirma Kurumu
Istanbul Teknik ÜniversitesiMUA-2019-42094

    Keywords

    • critical drought
    • drought intensity-duration-frequency curve
    • drought return period
    • frequency analysis
    • standardised precipitation index
    • total probability theorem

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