Convection-permitting climate simulations with COSMO-CLM over northwestern Türkiye under the RCP8.5 scenario

Cemre Yürük Sonuç*, Yurdanur Ünal, Selahattin İncecik

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The performance of the climate simulations by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM forced by MPI-ESM-LR, as well as projected future temperature and precipitation conditions over northwestern Türkiye at the convection-permitting resolution, are shown in this study. In terms of mean, maximum and minimum temperatures and daily total precipitation, the model response was examined. Comparisons with observations were made on an annual and seasonal basis. The convection-permitting model (0.0275°) provides a satisfactory representation of annual and seasonal mean temperatures according to bias, MAE and RMSE. Better results were found for precipitation with respect to RE, MAE and RMSE. Finally, we used the RCP8.5 emission scenario to investigate future climate changes in terms of average temperature and precipitation variations for northwestern Türkiye, including Istanbul, over two projection periods (2041–2060 and 2071–2090) compared to the reference period (1991–2005). The model predicts significant warming in northwestern Türkiye, particularly in Istanbul and its environs, by the end of the century, as well as a general decrease in precipitation, especially evident in the spring and summer. The findings of this study can be used to develop climate adaptation policies based on temperature and precipitation variables in and around the study area.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3841-3858
Number of pages18
JournalInternational Journal of Climatology
Volume43
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 30 Jun 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Royal Meteorological Society.

Funding

We would like to thank the Turkish State Meteorological Service for providing the meteorological data and the National Center for High-Performance Computing (UHeM) for providing us with supercomputing. This work is supported by TUBITAK project grant number 114Y047 under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme ERAfrica LOCLIM3. We would like to thank the Turkish State Meteorological Service for providing the meteorological data and the National Center for High‐Performance Computing (UHeM) for providing us with supercomputing. This work is supported by TUBITAK project grant number 114Y047 under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme ERAfrica LOCLIM3.

FundersFunder number
Turkish State Meteorological Service
Ulusal Yüksek Başarımlı Hesaplama Merkezi, Istanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu114Y047
Seventh Framework Programme
Sheikh Bahaei National High Performance Computing Center, Isfahan University of Technology

    Keywords

    • climate change
    • convection-permitting model
    • COSMO-CLM
    • Istanbul
    • Marmara region
    • MPI-ESM-LR
    • RCP8.5
    • Türkiye

    Fingerprint

    Dive into the research topics of 'Convection-permitting climate simulations with COSMO-CLM over northwestern Türkiye under the RCP8.5 scenario'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this