Contour diagram fuzzy model for maximum surface ozone prediction

Zekai Şen, Abdüsselam Altunkaynak*, Kadir Alp

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A contour diagram approach is presented for the identification of surface ozone concentration feature based on a set of rules by considering the meteorological variables such as the solar radiation, wind speed, temperature, humidity and rainfall. A fuzzy rule system approach is used because of the imprecise, insufficient, ambiguous and uncertain data available. The contour diagrams help to identify qualitative ozone concentration variability rules which are more general than conventional statistical or time series analysis. In the methodology, ozone concentration contours are based on a fixed variable as ozone precursor, namely, NOx and as the third variable one of the meteorological factors. Such contour diagrams for ozone concentration variation are prepared for six months. It is possible to identify the maximum ozone concentration episodes from these diagrams and then to set up the valid rules in the form of IF-THEN logical statements. These rules are obtained from available daily ozone, NOx and meteorological data as a first approximate reasoning step. In this manner, without mathematical formulations, expert maximum ozone concentration systems are identified. The application of the contour diagram approach is performed for daily ozone concentration measurements on European side of Istanbul city. It is concluded that through approximate reasoning with fuzzy rules, the maximum ozone concentration episodes can be identified and predicted without any mathematical expression.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)6389-6402
Number of pages14
JournalExpert Systems with Applications
Volume36
Issue number3 PART 2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2009

Keywords

  • Contour diagrams
  • Fuzzy rules
  • Fuzzy sets
  • Meteorology
  • Non-parametric approach
  • Ozone concentrations
  • Vagueness

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