Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap

Ufuk Beyaztas; Bugrayhan Bickici Arikan; Beste Hamiye Beyaztas; Ercan Kahya

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021

Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap

Ufuk Beyaztas
, Bugrayhan Bickici Arikan^*
, Beste Hamiye Beyaztas
, Ercan Kahya

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Civil Engineering

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

30 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	461-470
Number of pages	10
Journal	Journal of Hydrology
Volume	559
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021
Publication status	Published - Apr 2018

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Elsevier B.V.

Funding

We thank two anonymous referees for valuable suggestions and comments, which helped us improve the manuscrip significantly. We would like to acknowledge the support of TUBITAK (Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) for financial support. The authors wish to thank to MGM (Turkish State Meteorological Service) authorities for providing data.

Funders
TUBITAK
Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştirma Kurumu

Keywords

Bootstrap
Drought
Konya basin
PDSI
Prediction

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10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.021

Cite this

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title = "Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap",

abstract = "In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values.",

keywords = "Bootstrap, Drought, Konya basin, PDSI, Prediction",

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language = "English",

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T1 - Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap

AU - Beyaztas, Ufuk

AU - Bickici Arikan, Bugrayhan

AU - Beyaztas, Beste Hamiye

AU - Kahya, Ercan

PY - 2018/4

Y1 - 2018/4

N2 - In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values.

AB - In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values.

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KW - Drought

KW - Konya basin

KW - PDSI

KW - Prediction

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VL - 559

SP - 461

EP - 470

JO - Journal of Hydrology

JF - Journal of Hydrology

ER -

Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

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