Constraining Historical Earthquake Sequences With Coulomb Stress Models: An Example From Western Türkiye

M. L. Diercks*, Z. K. Mildon, S. J. Boulton, E. Hussain, C. Alçiçek, C. Yıldırım, T. Aykut

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Knowledge of earthquake source faults is crucial for the calculation of robust Coulomb stress models. However, source faults are often poorly constrained, especially for pre-instrumental events, and these historical earthquakes are commonly studied with little or no consideration of other nearby events. We introduce an approach using Coulomb Stress Transfer (CST) modeling to investigate historical earthquake sequences and constrain possible source faults. Using historical and instrumental records from the Büyük Menderes Graben, western Türkiye, we create an ensemble of earthquake sequences featuring multiple rupture scenarios for individual earthquakes, and model both coseismic and interseismic CST. We filter and evaluate the models based on criteria to gain knowledge on historical earthquakes and their source faults and assess the current stress state and related seismic hazard of the investigated fault network. For our study area, the results provide further constraints on the source faults of several historical earthquakes, including the destructive MW 7.0 earthquake in 1899. The approach presented herein is applicable to other tectonically active areas where the causative faults of historical earthquakes are poorly constrained from existing data sets (e.g., paleoseismology, damage records), providing a new tool to help decipher historical earthquake sequences and improve modeling studies.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2023JB026627
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
Volume128
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023. The Authors.

Funding

We thank the three anonymous reviewers and journal editors for their constructive and insightful comments, which significantly improved the quality of the manuscript. Thanks to Alessandro Verdecchia for guidance and discussion on using the backslip method. M.D. is supported by a University of Plymouth School of Geography, Earth, and Environmental Sciences PhD studentship. Original development of the 3D-faults code was supported by NERC PhD Studentship NE/L501700/1 and JSPS Short Term Fellowship PE15776 to ZM. For questions and comments concerning the ‘3D-Faults’ code please contact M.D. or Z.M. E.H. publishes with permission from the Executive Director of the British Geological Survey. We thank the three anonymous reviewers and journal editors for their constructive and insightful comments, which significantly improved the quality of the manuscript. Thanks to Alessandro Verdecchia for guidance and discussion on using the backslip method. M.D. is supported by a University of Plymouth School of Geography, Earth, and Environmental Sciences PhD studentship. Original development of the 3D‐faults code was supported by NERC PhD Studentship NE/L501700/1 and JSPS Short Term Fellowship PE15776 to ZM. For questions and comments concerning the ‘3D‐Faults’ code please contact M.D. or Z.M. E.H. publishes with permission from the Executive Director of the British Geological Survey.

FundersFunder number
Natural Environment Research Council
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science LondonPE15776
Plymouth University
British Geological Survey

    Keywords

    • active tectonics
    • Büyük Menderes Graben
    • coseismic and interseismic stress transfer
    • earthquake source faults
    • historic earthquakes
    • western Anatolian extensional province

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