Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI: case study of Ankara, Turkey

Ali Danandeh Mehr; Ali Unal Sorman; Ercan Kahya; Mahdi Hesami Afshar

doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1691218

Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI: case study of Ankara, Turkey

Ali Danandeh Mehr^*
, Ali Unal Sorman
, Ercan Kahya
, Mahdi Hesami Afshar

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Civil Engineering

Antalya Bilim University
Middle East Technical University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

166 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Using regionally downscaled and adjusted outputs of three global climate models (GCMs), meteorological drought analysis was accomplished across Ankara, the capital city of Turkey. To this end, standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were projected under (representative concentration pathway) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios. In general, our results show that Ankara experienced six severe and two extreme drought events during the reference period, 1971–2000. However, the projections indicate fewer drought events for the near-future period of 2016–2040, with no potential extreme drought events. While the RCP4.5 scenario showed that dry spells will be dominant in the second half of the near-future period, the RCP8.5 scenario projected that dry spells will be evenly distributed during the entire near-future period.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	254-268
Number of pages	15
Journal	Hydrological Sciences Journal
Volume	65
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1691218
Publication status	Published - 25 Jan 2020

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019, © 2019 IAHS.

Funding

The authors would like to thank the General Directorate of Meteorology (MGM) of Turkey for providing the meteorological datasets. We are also grateful to Dr Anne Van Loon (Associate Editor) and two reviewers for providing constructive comments on the initial version of this paper.

Funders
General Directorate of Meteorology
MGM Mirage Voice Foundation

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

Ankara
CMIP5 experiments
SPEI
SPI
Turkey
drought

Access to Document

10.1080/02626667.2019.1691218

Cite this

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title = "Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI: case study of Ankara, Turkey",

abstract = "Using regionally downscaled and adjusted outputs of three global climate models (GCMs), meteorological drought analysis was accomplished across Ankara, the capital city of Turkey. To this end, standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were projected under (representative concentration pathway) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios. In general, our results show that Ankara experienced six severe and two extreme drought events during the reference period, 1971–2000. However, the projections indicate fewer drought events for the near-future period of 2016–2040, with no potential extreme drought events. While the RCP4.5 scenario showed that dry spells will be dominant in the second half of the near-future period, the RCP8.5 scenario projected that dry spells will be evenly distributed during the entire near-future period.",

keywords = "Ankara, CMIP5 experiments, SPEI, SPI, Turkey, drought",

author = "\{Danandeh Mehr\}, Ali and Sorman, \{Ali Unal\} and Ercan Kahya and \{Hesami Afshar\}, Mahdi",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019, {\textcopyright} 2019 IAHS.",

year = "2020",

month = jan,

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doi = "10.1080/02626667.2019.1691218",

language = "English",

volume = "65",

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T1 - Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI

T2 - case study of Ankara, Turkey

AU - Danandeh Mehr, Ali

AU - Sorman, Ali Unal

AU - Kahya, Ercan

AU - Hesami Afshar, Mahdi

PY - 2020/1/25

Y1 - 2020/1/25

N2 - Using regionally downscaled and adjusted outputs of three global climate models (GCMs), meteorological drought analysis was accomplished across Ankara, the capital city of Turkey. To this end, standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were projected under (representative concentration pathway) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios. In general, our results show that Ankara experienced six severe and two extreme drought events during the reference period, 1971–2000. However, the projections indicate fewer drought events for the near-future period of 2016–2040, with no potential extreme drought events. While the RCP4.5 scenario showed that dry spells will be dominant in the second half of the near-future period, the RCP8.5 scenario projected that dry spells will be evenly distributed during the entire near-future period.

AB - Using regionally downscaled and adjusted outputs of three global climate models (GCMs), meteorological drought analysis was accomplished across Ankara, the capital city of Turkey. To this end, standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were projected under (representative concentration pathway) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios. In general, our results show that Ankara experienced six severe and two extreme drought events during the reference period, 1971–2000. However, the projections indicate fewer drought events for the near-future period of 2016–2040, with no potential extreme drought events. While the RCP4.5 scenario showed that dry spells will be dominant in the second half of the near-future period, the RCP8.5 scenario projected that dry spells will be evenly distributed during the entire near-future period.

KW - Ankara

KW - CMIP5 experiments

KW - SPEI

KW - SPI

KW - Turkey

KW - drought

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DO - 10.1080/02626667.2019.1691218

M3 - Article

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VL - 65

SP - 254

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JF - Hydrological Sciences Journal

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ER -

Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI: case study of Ankara, Turkey

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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