Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI: case study of Ankara, Turkey

Ali Danandeh Mehr*, Ali Unal Sorman, Ercan Kahya, Mahdi Hesami Afshar

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

117 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Using regionally downscaled and adjusted outputs of three global climate models (GCMs), meteorological drought analysis was accomplished across Ankara, the capital city of Turkey. To this end, standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were projected under (representative concentration pathway) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios. In general, our results show that Ankara experienced six severe and two extreme drought events during the reference period, 1971–2000. However, the projections indicate fewer drought events for the near-future period of 2016–2040, with no potential extreme drought events. While the RCP4.5 scenario showed that dry spells will be dominant in the second half of the near-future period, the RCP8.5 scenario projected that dry spells will be evenly distributed during the entire near-future period.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)254-268
Number of pages15
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Volume65
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 25 Jan 2020

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019, © 2019 IAHS.

Funding

The authors would like to thank the General Directorate of Meteorology (MGM) of Turkey for providing the meteorological datasets. We are also grateful to Dr Anne Van Loon (Associate Editor) and two reviewers for providing constructive comments on the initial version of this paper.

FundersFunder number
General Directorate of Meteorology
MGM Mirage Voice Foundation

    Keywords

    • Ankara
    • CMIP5 experiments
    • drought
    • SPEI
    • SPI
    • Turkey

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