Asymmetric Impacts of the Geopolitical Risk on the Oil Price Fluctuations

Oguzhan Ozcelebi*, Kaya Tokmakcioglu

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)


In this study, the vector autoregression (VAR) model framework is enhanced by the incorporation of nonlinear effects. More specifically, this study employs a nonlinear VAR model for the post-global financial crisis (GFC) period, and thus, the impacts of the geopolitical risk on oil futures and volatility are discussed for Israel, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. It is found that an increase in geopolitical risk will lead to an increase in oil futures, whereas the geopolitical risk changes in Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey measured by 1, 2, 4, and 10 standard deviation shocks have higher impacts than that of Russia. In the case of Israel, it is revealed that the rise in geopolitical risk may lead to a steady upward trend in oil futures by reducing oil price volatility. Our study highlights the role of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey in oil prices, and it is suggested that the geopolitical risks of all countries may have symmetrical effects on oil futures. The impact of country-specific geopolitical risk shocks on oil price volatility can be considered asymmetric, and the responses are size-dependent. In this respect, we also show that the global geopolitical risk benchmark index may have an asymmetric impact on oil price volatility.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationEurasian Studies in Business and Economics
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media B.V.
Number of pages15
Publication statusPublished - 2021

Publication series

NameEurasian Studies in Business and Economics
ISSN (Print)2364-5067
ISSN (Electronic)2364-5075

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021.


  • Asymmetry
  • Censored VAR
  • Geopolitical risk
  • Oil futures
  • Oil price volatility


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