TY - JOUR
T1 - Assessing the impact of climate change on summertime tropospheric ozone in the Eastern Mediterranean
T2 - Insights from meteorological and air quality modeling
AU - Rezaei, Reza
AU - Güllü, Gülen
AU - Ünal, Alper
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2025/3/1
Y1 - 2025/3/1
N2 - This study evaluates the impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations in the Eastern Mediterranean using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models. Simulations were conducted for a historical period (2012) and a future projection (2053) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Anthropogenic emissions were sourced from the EMEP/EEA inventory, while biogenic emissions were calculated using the MEGAN model. Model performance evaluations yielded R2 (RMSE) values of 0.71–0.85 (3.33–4.9) for WRF and 0.58 (8.35) for CMAQ, indicating reasonable predictive accuracy. Under SSP5-8.5 (SSP2-4.5), the WRF model projects an average summertime temperature increase of 1.6 °C (1.2 °C) and a significant decline in precipitation across the Eastern Mediterranean. Air quality simulations show a regional increase in summertime O3 concentrations by 3.5 ppb (3.0 ppb) under SSP5-8.5 (SSP2-4.5), with the most pronounced increases occurring in the southeast. Conversely, a significant reduction in O3 concentrations is observed over the Marmara Sea and parts of Istanbul in both scenarios. This reduction is attributed to climate-induced processes, including accelerated O3 photolysis in moist conditions and enhanced O3 consumption by NOx in the NOx-saturated regime of the Marmara Sea region. Additionally, analyses reveal a significant increase in O3 levels in Istanbul under SSP5-8.5, while Bursa shows notable increases under both scenarios. These findings underscore the need for targeted emission control measures to mitigate future O3 pollution in the region.
AB - This study evaluates the impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations in the Eastern Mediterranean using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models. Simulations were conducted for a historical period (2012) and a future projection (2053) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Anthropogenic emissions were sourced from the EMEP/EEA inventory, while biogenic emissions were calculated using the MEGAN model. Model performance evaluations yielded R2 (RMSE) values of 0.71–0.85 (3.33–4.9) for WRF and 0.58 (8.35) for CMAQ, indicating reasonable predictive accuracy. Under SSP5-8.5 (SSP2-4.5), the WRF model projects an average summertime temperature increase of 1.6 °C (1.2 °C) and a significant decline in precipitation across the Eastern Mediterranean. Air quality simulations show a regional increase in summertime O3 concentrations by 3.5 ppb (3.0 ppb) under SSP5-8.5 (SSP2-4.5), with the most pronounced increases occurring in the southeast. Conversely, a significant reduction in O3 concentrations is observed over the Marmara Sea and parts of Istanbul in both scenarios. This reduction is attributed to climate-induced processes, including accelerated O3 photolysis in moist conditions and enhanced O3 consumption by NOx in the NOx-saturated regime of the Marmara Sea region. Additionally, analyses reveal a significant increase in O3 levels in Istanbul under SSP5-8.5, while Bursa shows notable increases under both scenarios. These findings underscore the need for targeted emission control measures to mitigate future O3 pollution in the region.
KW - Air quality
KW - BVOCs
KW - Climate change
KW - Eastern Mediterranean
KW - Tropospheric ozone
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85214326715&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121036
DO - 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121036
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85214326715
SN - 1352-2310
VL - 344
JO - Atmospheric Environment
JF - Atmospheric Environment
M1 - 121036
ER -