Assessing the impact of climate change on summertime tropospheric ozone in the Eastern Mediterranean: Insights from meteorological and air quality modeling

Reza Rezaei*, Gülen Güllü, Alper Ünal

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations in the Eastern Mediterranean using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models. Simulations were conducted for a historical period (2012) and a future projection (2053) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Anthropogenic emissions were sourced from the EMEP/EEA inventory, while biogenic emissions were calculated using the MEGAN model. Model performance evaluations yielded R2 (RMSE) values of 0.71–0.85 (3.33–4.9) for WRF and 0.58 (8.35) for CMAQ, indicating reasonable predictive accuracy. Under SSP5-8.5 (SSP2-4.5), the WRF model projects an average summertime temperature increase of 1.6 °C (1.2 °C) and a significant decline in precipitation across the Eastern Mediterranean. Air quality simulations show a regional increase in summertime O3 concentrations by 3.5 ppb (3.0 ppb) under SSP5-8.5 (SSP2-4.5), with the most pronounced increases occurring in the southeast. Conversely, a significant reduction in O3 concentrations is observed over the Marmara Sea and parts of Istanbul in both scenarios. This reduction is attributed to climate-induced processes, including accelerated O3 photolysis in moist conditions and enhanced O3 consumption by NOx in the NOx-saturated regime of the Marmara Sea region. Additionally, analyses reveal a significant increase in O3 levels in Istanbul under SSP5-8.5, while Bursa shows notable increases under both scenarios. These findings underscore the need for targeted emission control measures to mitigate future O3 pollution in the region.

Original languageEnglish
Article number121036
JournalAtmospheric Environment
Volume344
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 Elsevier Ltd

Keywords

  • Air quality
  • BVOCs
  • Climate change
  • Eastern Mediterranean
  • Tropospheric ozone

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