Assessing policy interventions for electric vehicle adoption through an agent-based environmental framework

This paper presents an agent-based modelling (ABM) platform incorporating an extended Bass diffusion model to examine the effects of fiscal, infrastructural, and behavioural policies on electric vehicle (EV) adoption and associated environmental impacts in Türkiye. Addressing transport electrification is critical for emission mitigation in emerging economies, where policy effectiveness and system interactions remain uncertain. Compared to aggregate system-dynamics approaches, the ABM framework enables explicit representation of heterogeneous agents, policy persistence, and feedbacks between EV diffusion and electricity system transformation. The model accounts for dynamic policy persistence effects, imitation mechanisms, and power-sector responses. Seven policy scenarios are simulated to explore impacts on EV diffusion, electricity demand, and CO₂ emissions. Results indicate that the design and stringency of policy interventions play an important role in shaping the pace and stability of EV adoption. Temporarily effective or narrowly targeted incentives yield limited outcomes, whereas stable and sustained policy packages generate self-reinforcing market growth. The comprehensive policy scenario, integrating fiscal incentives, infrastructure expansion, and managed charging, achieves approximately 17 % emission abatement and 368 MtCO₂ cumulative reductions by 2040. Electricity demand increases remain modest, falling within projected renewable expansion, suggesting that large-scale electrification can be achieved without compromising grid stability. Model projections show strong alignment with official forecasts from the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, supporting the realism of the framework. The results highlight the necessity of integrated, multi-dimensional policy portfolios to support Türkiye's 2053 Net Zero Emissions Target, while offering a transferable modelling framework applicable to other economies undergoing sustainable mobility transitions.