Assessing climate-driven shifts in Liquidambar orientalis using ensemble species distribution models in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

Background: Liquidambar orientalis, a relict and endemic tree species of the Eastern Mediterranean, is increasingly threatened due to its narrow distribution and intense anthropogenic pressures. This study aims to model the spatiotemporal changes in its habitat suitability from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to future climate scenarios (2050 and 2070) using a robust ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) framework. By integrating paleobotanical data with predictive modeling, we provide crucial insights into the species' ecological resilience and future conservation priorities. Results: The ensemble models showed excellent predictive performance (AUC = 0.96, TSS = 0.91, Boyce Index = 0.84, Kappa = 0.89), identifying mean diurnal range (Bio2) and precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19) as the most influential variables. Fossil pollen records confirm the species long–term persistence in southwestern Anatolia since the early Miocene. While projections under the RCP 2.6 scenario suggest potential habitat expansion or stability, especially in mountainous refugia, the RCP 8.5 scenario indicates a reduction in highly suitable areas. Nevertheless, key ecological niches are expected to persist, particularly along the southern slopes of the Taurus Mountains. Conclusions: This is the first study to combine multi temporal ensemble SDMs and fossil records for L. orientalis, revealing its ecological flexibility over millennia. The findings underscore the necessity of prioritizing genetically diverse populations and climatically stable refugia in conservation strategies. Our integrative approach provides a valuable framework for assessing the climate resilience of other Mediterranean relict species.