An Analytic Hierarchy Process Contingency Analysis of Factors Affecting the Emigration Decision of Medical Doctors in Turkey

While the importance of explicitly identifying and considering contingent factors such as decision content and context is widely accepted as a way to ensure the validity of the decision analysis for the specific task at hand, few studies include this. This research uses a contingency theoretical approach to study factors affecting the emigration decision of medical doctors (MDs) for the specific case of Turkey. The motivation for conducting this study arises from the observation that the growing trend in emigration among MDs from Turkey is having a significant impact on the country’s healthcare system. Dealing with the emigration of MDs is crucial for ensuring an effective and sustainable healthcare system, especially in terms of the availability of services, satisfaction, and employment of the healthcare staff. Contextual factors were explicitly identified through consultation with experts, while the generic factors were retrieved from the specialized medical migration literature. The Analytic Hierarchy Process method was utilized to prioritize the factors. Seventy-three participants were surveyed about their intention to either study or work abroad. The findings reveal that low remuneration and anxiety about their future due to the political situation in the country constitute the two most important factors driving the decision to emigrate.