A Risk-Based UAM Airspace Capacity Assessment Method Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Yu Su*, Yan Xu, Gokhan Inalhan

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review


Inspired by risk analysis assistance service and dynamic capacity management service in U-space service, this paper investigates a risk-based UAM airspace capacity assessment method using Monte Carlo simulation for future urban air mobility. The quantitative risk assessment of the flight plan is divided into three parts: the ground / air risks of the flight plan and the mid-air collision risk between UAM. Using the comprehensive risk assessment method, this paper generates several simulation scenarios in the airspace to be evaluated in terms of the type of participants, the presence of the detect and avoid system, and the total number of participants in the airspace, conducts Monte Carlo simulations, and records the simulation data for analysis. Through the analysis of simulation data, it is found that the maximum risk of UAM in airspace increases with the increase of the number of airspace invaders and the total number of UAM. However, the maximum risk of UAM in airspace decreases when the aircraft in airspace contains the detection and avoid system with the same other conditions. Based on simulation data, this paper informatively proposes the concept of a 3D risk surface and a risk-based airspace capacity envelope, using the horizontal surface formed by a specific risk threshold to cut the 3D risk surface to form an airspace capacity envelope, which visually describes the number of aircraft that can be contained in the airspace under a specific risk threshold.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationDASC 2023 - Digital Avionics Systems Conference, Proceedings
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9798350333572
Publication statusPublished - 2023
Externally publishedYes
Event42nd IEEE/AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference, DASC 2023 - Barcelona, Spain
Duration: 1 Oct 20235 Oct 2023

Publication series

NameAIAA/IEEE Digital Avionics Systems Conference - Proceedings
ISSN (Print)2155-7195
ISSN (Electronic)2155-7209


Conference42nd IEEE/AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference, DASC 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 IEEE.


This work was partially funded by the SESAR JU under grant agreement No 101017702, as part of the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme: AMU-LED (Air Mobility Urban - Large Experimental Demon- strations). The opinions expressed herein reflect the authors view only. Under no circumstances shall the SESAR Joint Undertaking be responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained herein.

FundersFunder number
SESAR JU101017702
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme


    • capacity assessment
    • Monte Carlo simulation
    • urban air mobility


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