A risk-based modelling approach to enhance shipping accident investigation

Metin Celik*, Seyed Miri Lavasani, Jin Wang

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

148 Citations (Scopus)


This paper developed a risk-based modelling approach to enhance the execution process of shipping accident investigation (SAI). Specifically, the paper addressed a fuzzy extended fault tree analysis (FFTA) that combines the effects of organizational faults and shipboard technical system failures under a unique risk assessment scheme. The case study illustrates that a novel idea behind the proposed methodology allows relevant accident investigators to clarify the probability of technical failures, operational misapplications, and legislative shortages leading to the shipping accident. The current SAI reports can be extended with an integrated risk assessment section to formulate integrated strategies along with risk control measures onboard ships. Since the consequences of shipping accidents are still a global concern, the paper addresses integration of a FFTA into SAI reports to ensure a consistent database and subsequent decision aid to accident analysis and prevention efforts in the maritime transportation industry.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)18-27
Number of pages10
JournalSafety Science
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2010


  • Fuzzy fault tree analysis
  • Human factor
  • ISM code
  • Maritime regulations
  • Shipping accident investigation


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