A quantitative dynamic risk assessment for ship operation using the fuzzy FMEA: The case of ship berthing/unberthing operation

Serap Goksu*, Ozcan Arslan

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Ships are exposed to static risks that stem from the nature of the operation as well as human, machine, and environmental factors and have a complex and multi-layered system that also contains dynamic risks. For this reason, maritime studies to reduce and prevent risks in ship operations continue by safety researchers. The present study proposes a quantitative maritime safety analysis based on Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) methodology to evaluate potential risks that may occur during ship operations. To demonstrate the practical application of the proposed approach, failure modes are determined in ship berthing/unberthing operations and prioritized according to risk values. According to the results, the failure modes which have higher risk rates are identified as Fatigue/Individual error, Very strong wind, Excessive heat, Low tide, Increase/decrease in ship speed. Finally, appropriate corrective or preventive actions are recommended to control failure modes that affect the safety of the ship and to reduce or eliminate the effects of these failures with a proactive approach. This paper theoretically contributes for marine safety inspectors, safety researchers, and HSEQ managers to identify potential hazards, effects, and consequences in case of berthing/unberthing operations.

Original languageEnglish
Article number115548
JournalOcean Engineering
Volume287
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023

Funding

Risk evaluation is defined as the process of assigning magnitude and probability to negative impacts of human activities or natural disasters (Suter et al., 2000). In maritime risk evaluation, the purpose is to support decision-makers for a particular marine system or ship operation and to reduce risks to acceptable levels by applying adequate controls (Chaal et al., 2022). With risk evaluation, many signs of uncertainty that affect robustness are captured (Oliver et al., 2004). IMO initiated a Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) to measure the risks posed by maritime transport activities and to adopt risk evaluation procedures (Soares and Teixeira, 2001; Arslan, 2009). Studies using the FSA were encouraged within the IMO to support decisions regarding the implementation of international regulations (IMO, 1998a; 1998b; 1998c; 2000). However, there were criticisms in the literature that FSA studies could not identify the root cause of a hazard and confuse the cause-and-effect interaction (Psaraftis, 2012). In maritime transport, the risk evaluation methods have varied according to the constraints of the problems to be examined and the desired outcomes as a result of the application. In the related literature, it is seen that HAZOP (Pan et al., 2012; Sultana et al., 2019), FTA (Mentes and Helvacioglu, 2011; Uğurlu et al., 2013), ETA (Ronza et al., 2003; Raiyan et al., 2017), Bow-Tie (Arici et al., 2020; Kaptan, 2021) and FMEA (Emovon et al., 2015; Akyuz, 2017) were developed and applied within the scope of risk evaluation.

FundersFunder number
Bow-Tie
FMEA
Formal Safety Assessment
Mentes and Helvacioglu
Federal Transit Administration

    Keywords

    • Berthing
    • Dynamic risk assessment
    • FMEA
    • Fuzzy expert system
    • Maritime safety
    • Operational risk

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