A Forecasting Study of Covid-19 Epidemic: Turkey Case

Omer Faruk Gurcan; Omer Faruk Beyca; Ugur Atici; Orhan Er

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-09176-6_31

A Forecasting Study of Covid-19 Epidemic: Turkey Case

Omer Faruk Gurcan^*, Omer Faruk Beyca, Ugur Atici, Orhan Er

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Industrial Engineering

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

The Coronavirus (Covid-19) is an infectious disease and has spread over the 170 countries. The pandemic brings new challenges to the research community. Many measures are taken by countries and developed vaccines limit the spread of pandemic. Globally, there have been more than 490 million confirmed case of Covid-19, and 6.1 million deaths reported World Health Organization as of April 4, 2022. Disease modelling has critical policy impact on Covid-19. Forecasting is one of the key purposes of epidemic modelling. It will not only help the governments but also, the medical practitioners to know the future trajectory of the spread, which might help them with the best possible treatments, precautionary measures and protections. This study makes a forecasting of Covid-19 for Turkey. Specifically, a multi-step forecasting model is proposed. Additionally, the effect of some measures taken against Covid-19 are analyzed. The study period covers 11 March 2020 - 16 March 2022 and number of confirmed cases is selected as indicator. A summary information is given about the course of the pandemic in Turkey and the fight against Covid-19.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems - Digital Acceleration and The New Normal - Proceedings of the INFUS 2022 Conference, Volume 2
Editors	Cengiz Kahraman, Sezi Cevik Onar, Basar Oztaysi, Irem Ucal Sari, A. Cagri Tolga, Selcuk Cebi
Publisher	Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages	263-271
Number of pages	9
ISBN (Print)	9783031091759
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-09176-6_31
Publication status	Published - 2022
Event	International Conference on Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, INFUS 2022 - Izmir, Turkey Duration: 19 Jul 2022 → 21 Jul 2022

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems
Volume	505 LNNS
ISSN (Print)	2367-3370
ISSN (Electronic)	2367-3389

Conference

Conference	International Conference on Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, INFUS 2022
Country/Territory	Turkey
City	Izmir
Period	19/07/22 → 21/07/22

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Keywords

Covid-19
Forecasting
Random forest regression

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-031-09176-6_31

Cite this

Gurcan, O. F., Beyca, O. F., Atici, U., & Er, O. (2022). A Forecasting Study of Covid-19 Epidemic: Turkey Case. In C. Kahraman, S. Cevik Onar, B. Oztaysi, I. U. Sari, A. C. Tolga, & S. Cebi (Eds.), Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems - Digital Acceleration and The New Normal - Proceedings of the INFUS 2022 Conference, Volume 2 (pp. 263-271). (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems; Vol. 505 LNNS). Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-09176-6_31

Gurcan, Omer Faruk ; Beyca, Omer Faruk ; Atici, Ugur et al. / A Forecasting Study of Covid-19 Epidemic : Turkey Case. Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems - Digital Acceleration and The New Normal - Proceedings of the INFUS 2022 Conference, Volume 2. editor / Cengiz Kahraman ; Sezi Cevik Onar ; Basar Oztaysi ; Irem Ucal Sari ; A. Cagri Tolga ; Selcuk Cebi. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2022. pp. 263-271 (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems).

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abstract = "The Coronavirus (Covid-19) is an infectious disease and has spread over the 170 countries. The pandemic brings new challenges to the research community. Many measures are taken by countries and developed vaccines limit the spread of pandemic. Globally, there have been more than 490 million confirmed case of Covid-19, and 6.1 million deaths reported World Health Organization as of April 4, 2022. Disease modelling has critical policy impact on Covid-19. Forecasting is one of the key purposes of epidemic modelling. It will not only help the governments but also, the medical practitioners to know the future trajectory of the spread, which might help them with the best possible treatments, precautionary measures and protections. This study makes a forecasting of Covid-19 for Turkey. Specifically, a multi-step forecasting model is proposed. Additionally, the effect of some measures taken against Covid-19 are analyzed. The study period covers 11 March 2020 - 16 March 2022 and number of confirmed cases is selected as indicator. A summary information is given about the course of the pandemic in Turkey and the fight against Covid-19.",

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Gurcan, OF, Beyca, OF, Atici, U & Er, O 2022, A Forecasting Study of Covid-19 Epidemic: Turkey Case. in C Kahraman, S Cevik Onar, B Oztaysi, IU Sari, AC Tolga & S Cebi (eds), Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems - Digital Acceleration and The New Normal - Proceedings of the INFUS 2022 Conference, Volume 2. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol. 505 LNNS, Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, pp. 263-271, International Conference on Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, INFUS 2022, Izmir, Turkey, 19/07/22. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-09176-6_31

A Forecasting Study of Covid-19 Epidemic: Turkey Case. / Gurcan, Omer Faruk; Beyca, Omer Faruk; Atici, Ugur et al.
Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems - Digital Acceleration and The New Normal - Proceedings of the INFUS 2022 Conference, Volume 2. ed. / Cengiz Kahraman; Sezi Cevik Onar; Basar Oztaysi; Irem Ucal Sari; A. Cagri Tolga; Selcuk Cebi. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2022. p. 263-271 (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems; Vol. 505 LNNS).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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T1 - A Forecasting Study of Covid-19 Epidemic

T2 - International Conference on Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, INFUS 2022

AU - Gurcan, Omer Faruk

AU - Beyca, Omer Faruk

AU - Atici, Ugur

AU - Er, Orhan

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

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Gurcan OF, Beyca OF, Atici U, Er O. A Forecasting Study of Covid-19 Epidemic: Turkey Case. In Kahraman C, Cevik Onar S, Oztaysi B, Sari IU, Tolga AC, Cebi S, editors, Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems - Digital Acceleration and The New Normal - Proceedings of the INFUS 2022 Conference, Volume 2. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. 2022. p. 263-271. (Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems). doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-09176-6_31

A Forecasting Study of Covid-19 Epidemic: Turkey Case

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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Cite this