A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis: The case of Turkey

Şule Önsel Şahin; Füsun Ülengin; Burç Ülengin

doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2005.06.036

A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis: The case of Turkey

Şule Önsel Şahin, Füsun Ülengin^*, Burç Ülengin

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Management Engineering

Dogus University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper proposes the use of Bayesian Causal Maps (BCM's) to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. In this study, a model of inflation is initially structured using a cognitive mapping technique; the dependent probabilities of the concepts are then calculated based on the detailed analysis of past data. Finally, a BCM is used to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. As a result, it will be possible to see the structure of the inflation model and to understand the basic consequences of any strategic change that may occur in the system.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1268-1284
Number of pages	17
Journal	European Journal of Operational Research
Volume	175
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2005.06.036
Publication status	Published - 1 Dec 2006

Keywords

Bayesian causal map
Cognitive mapping
Economics
Forecasting
Turkish Inflation

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10.1016/j.ejor.2005.06.036

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title = "A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis: The case of Turkey",

abstract = "This paper proposes the use of Bayesian Causal Maps (BCM's) to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. In this study, a model of inflation is initially structured using a cognitive mapping technique; the dependent probabilities of the concepts are then calculated based on the detailed analysis of past data. Finally, a BCM is used to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. As a result, it will be possible to see the structure of the inflation model and to understand the basic consequences of any strategic change that may occur in the system.",

keywords = "Bayesian causal map, Cognitive mapping, Economics, Forecasting, Turkish Inflation",

author = "{\c S}ahin, {{\c S}ule {\"O}nsel} and F{\"u}sun {\"U}lengin and Bur{\c c} {\"U}lengin",

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T2 - The case of Turkey

AU - Şahin, Şule Önsel

AU - Ülengin, Füsun

AU - Ülengin, Burç

PY - 2006/12/1

Y1 - 2006/12/1

N2 - This paper proposes the use of Bayesian Causal Maps (BCM's) to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. In this study, a model of inflation is initially structured using a cognitive mapping technique; the dependent probabilities of the concepts are then calculated based on the detailed analysis of past data. Finally, a BCM is used to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. As a result, it will be possible to see the structure of the inflation model and to understand the basic consequences of any strategic change that may occur in the system.

AB - This paper proposes the use of Bayesian Causal Maps (BCM's) to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. In this study, a model of inflation is initially structured using a cognitive mapping technique; the dependent probabilities of the concepts are then calculated based on the detailed analysis of past data. Finally, a BCM is used to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. As a result, it will be possible to see the structure of the inflation model and to understand the basic consequences of any strategic change that may occur in the system.

KW - Bayesian causal map

KW - Cognitive mapping

KW - Economics

KW - Forecasting

KW - Turkish Inflation

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JF - European Journal of Operational Research

IS - 2

ER -

A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis: The case of Turkey

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Keywords

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